30-Day Weather Outlook for March 3, 2024 to April 3, 2024

Feb 28, 2024

BASIC PATTERN

Large Scale Pattern

The focus of lingering upper lows continues west of the Pacific Northwest, and also at 132-140W to the west of N and Central California. The IVTinit pattern extends south to 35N to the west of southcentral California.
Our IVTinitô analysis shows the calculated estimate of one day (Day0 TIVT24,) based on the sea surface temperature anomaly pattern off the West Coast, out to the Dateline (180W). This is calculated by Fox Weather LLCís CyclogenIVT AI application each day. It shows for us the areas of troughing and support for rains upstream from California and the West Coast.
This particular analysis shows support for rains at 130-135W off the California coast. It also continues to show another area of troughing that extends westward from Central Baja California. The main issue affecting the prevailing track of storm systems is the unusually strong east-west-oriented IVTinit feature extending off central Baja California. This IVTinit feature provides support for troughs to maintain strength as they head southeast from the California central coast to Baja. This is the primary reason for the current recurrent heavier than normal rain events into Southern California and western Mexico.
Rain Dates: Feb 29, Mar 1,2,3,4,5,6,10,11,12,15, showers 19-20, 29,30,31, Apr 1,5,6.
In March, there is now more agreement between the CFSv2 and NMME models regarding rainfall. The CFSv2 shows near normal rainfall for March, which to us appears realistic.
Note that temperature during March is forecasted below normal for Central and S California. This supports a higher probability of frost and freeze events for those sensitive agricultural areas in the San Joaquin Valley and Delta, Central Coast to Santa Maria-Santa Ynez Valley, and Southern California.
During April, CFSv2 suggests a return to warmer than normal conditions in N and Central California. Above normal precipitation focuses in the Sierras, otherwise precipitation is near normal during April in SOCAL. Precipitation is below normal in NW California per the CFSv2 maps.

FORECASTS FOR CALIFORNIA

Forecast for Northern California:

NORCAL Precipitation: Mar 1,2,3,4,5,6,10,11,12,15, showers 19-20, 29,30,31, Apr 1,5,6.
NORCAL MILD OR WARMER SPELLS: n/a
NORCAL COOL/COLD/FROSTS: Mar 7-8, 13-14,17-18, 21-24. . . .Forecast for Central California Mar 1-Apr 3

Forecast for Central California:
Central Calif Precipitation: Mar 1,2,3, 5,6,10,11,12,15
Central Calif WARM SPELLS: n/a
Central Calif COOL/COLD/FROSTS: Mar 7-8, 13-14,17-18, 21-24

Forecast for S California:
SOCAL RAINS: Mar 1,2,3, 6,15
SOCAL WARM SPELLS: Feb n/a
SOCAL COLD OR FROST: Mar 8, 13-14,17, 22

Central Sierra Nevada Precipitation
Main dates of rains or showers and mountain snow...Mar 1,2,3, 5,6,10,11,12,15

---------

The listings of dates normally included for hot and cold spells, and precipitation are approximate. They are based on our CFSDaily and CFSDailyAI products; and present expected trends in precipitation and temperature (FoxCFSDailyAI) to 5km. Our system gives some consideration to terrain and coastal influence. We consider the CFSv2 one of the better ways to represent basic weather down in the sub-monthly time scale beyond the 15ñday GFS or monthly maps from CFSv2 or NMME.

---------

Southern California Deserts Outlook:

Troughing Dates: Mar 1,2,3, 6,15.
These dates may contain some showers as well as gusty winds.

Looking Ahead — Longer Range Outlook April 3 - April 30, 2024

N and Central California and Sierras:. Other rains are possible Apr 1,5,6. Near normal rainfall is currently suggested by the CFSv2 monthly outlook maps in most of Sierras in Apr. Below normal rainfall is suggested for west half of California in April.

S California:
Near to below normal rainfall. Near above normal temperatures.

(Terms and Definitions Used In This Weather Outlook)