30-Day Weather Outlook for February 15, 2024 to March 15, 2024

Feb 13, 2024

BASIC PATTERN

Large Scale Pattern

California precipitation Feb: rain dates (very approximatelyÖ..) are Feb 15, 17-22, 26, and Mar 18-20.
The focus of lingering upper lows continues west of the Pacific Northwest, and also at 138-145W to the west of N and Central California. The IVTinit pattern extends to 35N to the west of southcentral California.
Our IVTinitô analysis, and sea surface temperature anomaly pattern west of California show the area of troughing and support for rains 135W off the California coast. However, the pattern appears stable, and periods of wet storms from the west will also be affecting N and Central California as well as Southern California.
February 15-29 appears to have colder than normal conditions, and above normal precipitation, overall, for the Sierras and southern half of California, including most of Central California and SOCAL. This follows the guidance of CFSv2 monthly outlook map for the latter half of February. The northern third of California appears to have about normal rainfall, and a little warmer than normal conditions.
In March precipitation shifts to near or below normal statewide, but temperatures return to near or above normal.
During April, there continue warmer than normal conditions in N and Central California. Above normal precipitation focuses in NORCAL, otherwise precipitation is near normal.
Creation date of the NCEP/CPC CFSv2 monthly outlook maps for temperature and precipitation is Feb 10, 2024.

FORECASTS FOR CALIFORNIA

Forecast for Northern California:

NORCAL Precipitation: Feb 14-15, 17-22, 25-28, Mar 4, 17-20
NORCAL MILD OR WARMER SPELLS: Feb 12-13, 24, Mar 1-3 and 7-14
NORCAL COOL/COLD/FROSTS: Feb 14-23, 25-29, Mar 4-6 and 17-20

Forecast for Central California:

Central Calif Precipitation: Feb 18-21, 27-28, Mar 5,20
Central Calif WARM SPELLS: Feb 23-25, Mar 1-4, 7-15
Central Calif COOL/COLD/FROSTS: Feb 14-16, 18-21, 27-29 Mar 5 and 20

Forecast for S California:

SOCAL RAINS: Feb 18-19,20-22, 29.
SOCAL WARM SPELLS: Feb 12-16, 24, 27-28, Mar 2-4, 7-18
SOCAL COLD OR FROST: Feb 19-23, 26, 29-Mar 1, 5-6 BASIC PATTERN

Central Sierra Nevada Precipitation

Main dates of rains or showers and mountain snow — Feb 18-22, 25, 29 and Mar 5

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The listings of dates normally included for hot and cold spells, and precipitation are approximate. They are based on our CFSDaily and CFSDailyAI products; and present expected trends in precipitation and temperature (FoxCFSDailyAI) to 5km. Our system gives some consideration to terrain and coastal influence. We consider the CFSv2 one of the better ways to represent basic weather down in the sub-monthly time scale beyond the 15ñday GFS or monthly maps from CFSv2 or NMME.

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Southern California Deserts Outlook:

Troughing Dates: Feb 18-22, 29 and Mar 4-5
These dates may contain some showers as well as gusty winds.

Looking Ahead — Longer Range Outlook March 15 - April 15, 2024

N and Central California and Sierras:

Other rains have a tendency to occur Mar 1-4 and 10-14. Below normal rainfall is currently suggested by the CFSv2 monthly outlook maps in most of California in March. Near normal rainfall is currently suggested by CFSv2 monthly outlook for most of California in April 2024.

S California

Mar 10-14 is usually the wetter period in early spring for storm events in Central and Southern California. Large Scale Pattern.

(Terms and Definitions Used In This Weather Outlook)