2024 California Mid-Season Crop Update

  • May 28, 2024

Each spring the California Avocado Commission conducts a mid-season grower crop survey asking them to provide detailed information regarding their estimated crop volume for the current year. In addition to the grower crop survey the Commission also surveys handlers to gather total industry volume estimates, as well as estimated timing of harvest. Together the results of these surveys play an important role in helping CAC adjust crop estimates and predict the flow of avocados to market during the critical mid-season.

At this time of year CAC typically releases a crop update with an estimated crop size and timing. However, there are times when the grower and handler survey results are not aligned closely enough for the Commission to publish one number. This was last the case in 2019, and now again in 2024. CAC understands the importance of reliable crop data to our growers, handlers and trade partners, and therefore is providing the results of both the handler and grower mid-season crop updates:

2024 Grower Crop Survey Results:
271.6 million pounds

  • Hass – 256.6 million pounds
  • Lamb – 9 million pounds
  • Gem – 5 million pounds
  • Other – 1 million pounds

2024 Handler Crop Survey Results:
250 million pounds

  • Hass – 235 million pounds
  • Lamb – 9 million pounds
  • Gem – 5 million pounds
  • Other – 1 million pounds

The results of the grower crop survey are derived from responses representing nearly 43% of California’s producing acreage. While the grower survey confirms that several growing regions have a light crop on the trees this year, Ventura County production, specifically Santa Paula and Somis, is estimated at 10,000 pounds per acre. If these estimates are accurate, those two cities alone could harvest one-third of this year’s total crop volume. Based on the year-to-date harvest volumes and discussions with industry stakeholders suggesting weekly harvest volumes should stay at promotable volumes for the next 10 weeks, the data indicates at a minimum the 2024 California volume will reach the 250-million-pound handler estimate.

Additional harvest analysis was completed based on both the grower and handler crop volume figures, which indicates that the current timing of the California harvest should remain unchanged, with peak harvest during the April through July timeframe and tapering off into Labor Day. Details of the mid-season crop survey results by growing region and county, as well as updated weekly harvest projections, can be found on the CAC grower website at https://www.californiaavocadogrowers.com/industry/crop-statistics/current-crop-estimates.

The Commission marketing team has been watching the crop estimate information closely and is highly engaged to support with further marketing activations as needed. The current advertising and promotion plan is in place providing a base level of support. With additional California avocado volume projected, the team is poised to add a three-pronged incremental investment support program.

First the program focuses on existing trade customers (retail and foodservice) with marketing support for maintaining distribution of California avocados longer on shelf as well as customer-specific extended promotional support plans. The team also is reaching out to new trade customers, investing in gaining distribution and promotional activity with new or lapsed customers where appropriate.

The third element of the incremental support plan is to drive greater consumer awareness and demand through additional targeted consumer advertising. This will be accomplished with direct advertising to the Commission’s pre-identified targeted consumers as well as advertising through partner programs that reach retailers’ targeted shoppers.

To be successful the CAC Marketing team will be aligning with appropriate handlers to ensure an uninterrupted supply of California avocados during the promotion periods.

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