Large Scale Summary
- The longwave pattern supports a tendency for occasional troughs near the California coast between the Bay Area and SE California and also the north coast from Mendocino County to the Oregon border, and on north through Washington State. SSW flow is well west of California at 140-150W. Mostly weak troughing is supported in the subtropical North Pacific from 160 to Dateline 175W, in agreement with IVTinit pattern. The most recent IVTinit pattern has favored a blocking ridge of high pressure from about 50N northward into Alaska.
- Precipitation dates: North Coast Mar 14, 23-25. Elsewhere in California: Central Sierras 23-25 Mar.
- NOAA/CPC/NWS still tends toward below average precipitation in Mar for all of California, and near or above average for the ORWA coast from northern WA state north to Vancouver Island British Columbia.
- Briefing for Mar in SOCAL and South-Central California: Warmer than average in Central and S California in March. The south half of California including SOCAL appears to be warmer and drier than average. The Sierras appear to have below average precipitation but still a little warmer than average with high snow levels expected. April rainfall near average in central and S California, but above average in southern-Central Sierras, and in the mountains of Southern California.
- For May 2026 we see from the NOAA guidance a tendency for mild temperatures and about average precipitation, below average in NORCAL.
Near Term Outlook
NORCAL
- PRECIPITATION DATES: MAR 22-24
- MILD to WARM/DRY PERIODS: MAR 27-28
- MOUNTAIN SNOWS AND COLD: MAR 21-24
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION DATES: MAR 22-24
- MILD AND DRY: MAR 25-27
- CENTRAL SIERRA SNOWS: MAR 22-24
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION DATES: MAR 23-24
- COLD/FREEZES DRY WINDS:FREEZES VALLEYS MAR 22-23, 25
- MOUNTAIN SNOW: MAR 23-24
- SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS
- PRECIPITATION DATES. MAR 23-24 MOSTLY MOUNTAINS
Medium Term Outlook — APRIL 10-30
NORCAL
- PRECIPITATION (MAY): PRECIP MOSTLY NEAR AVERAGE IN THE EAST, BELOW IN WEST/N COAST
- MOUNTAIN SNOWS (MAY): BELOW AVERAGE, HIGH SNOW LEVELS,
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION: MOSTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN SIERRAS, BELOW AVERAGE ELSEWHERE. .
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION: NEAR AVERAGE. BEST CHANCE SHOWERS: LATE APR TO MID MAY IN SIERRA NEVADA CENTRAL PORTIONS
- SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS PRECIPITATION: NEAR AVERAGE. BEST CHANCE SHOWERS: LATE APR TO MID MAY
Figures and Text: Alan Fox, Fox Weather, LLC
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