Large Scale Summary
- The longwave pattern supports west to SW flow over the north Pacific and southern Gulf of Alaska, and troughing in the subtropical and midlatitude Pacific from 170W to 140W. The near term troughs at the California coast are replaced by subtropical warm upper high pressure building into California from the west. This delivers dry and anomalously warm weather for mid to late Jan until rains return to California at times in early to mid-Feb. Atmospheric River events into Pacific Northwest (ORWA) and SW British Columbia are energized by tracks of above average sea surface temperatures (high IVTinit values) to the west of Oregon. It appears that the pause in rains may be long lasting, continuing until about 1 Feb.
- Precipitation dates: Most of Calif Jan 25-26, Feb 2-18. Southern California and N to Central Baja California receive rains on 20-21st from a closed upper low from the SSE. If this were summer this forecaster would call for a tropical cyclone event. But in January? I agree that climate change is occurring, but donít see support in the sea surface temperature field for a tropical cyclone. Something appears to be amiss. Whatever the storm or upper low is, calling it a tropical cyclone is not logical!
- NOAA/CPC/NWS still calls for below average precipitation in January. Although it is possible that rains will occur in SOCAL during 21-24th from this ìBajaî low pressure center, showers are more likely about 24-26th from a trough coming through California from the NW. The next set of rains occurs in early to mid-February. Temperatures appear to stay mostly above average in California with the current trend in lack of frosts continuing. However, a cold trough still could develop during 24-26th with mountain snows, even in SOCAL.
- Briefing for mid Feb – mid Mar: Above average temperature for Feb. Precipitation (rain and snow) below average, despite the up-tick in rains during 2-19 Feb, with precipitation near average in central and N Sierras. The CFS Daily suggests a chance for heavy rains on Feb 4, 6, 10, 12-16, 17, with fronts coming into the California coast. We believe the risk for this is lower than it was in December 2025.
Near Term Outlook
NORCAL
- PRECIPITATION DATES: JAN 22-26. FEB 2-3, 5-19, heaviest 6, 10, 12-17
- MILD to WARM/DRY PERIODS: JAN 13-19; FEB 23-28
- MOUNTAIN SNOWS: JAN 24-26, FEB 2-19. SNOW LEVELS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
- SNOW PROBABILITIES LOW FOR JAN 25-26, HIGHER SNOW LEVELS FEB 2-12, 14-19
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION DATES: JAN 24-26. FEB 3, 5-19
- MILD/DRY: JAN, FROSTS , NIGHTLY FREEZES 19-24
- CENTRAL SIERRA SNOWS: Jan 24-27, Feb 2-3, 6-17
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION DATES: JAN 21-24, 25-26. FEB 3,5-7, 13-19
- COLD/FREEZES DRY WINDS: JAN 13-17, FREEZES VALLEYS 18, SANTA ANAS 13-17
- WARM/DRY PERIODS: JAN 17-20 WARM SANTA ANA WINDS
- MOUNTAIN SNOW: JAN 25-26 BUT HIGH SNOW LEVELS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS
- PRECIPITATION DATES JAN 22-24, 25-26. FEB 2, 5-7, 14-17.
- WARM DRY WINDS: JAN 13-16, COLD, WINDY JAN 18-19, FEB 3 FROST, 8-9 FROST
- MOUNTAIN SNOW: JAN 6
Medium Term Outlook: February 15 - March 15
NORCAL: February 15-28
- PRECIPITATION: PRECIP FEB 15-28 BELOW AVERAGE
- MARCH PRECIP: BELOW AVERAGE
- MOUNTAIN SNOWS: BELOW AVERAGE,HIGH SNOW LEVELS, MARCH SHOWERS OF SNOW HIGHEST PEAKS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION: BELOW AVERAGE IN SIERRAS FEB 18-28
- MARCH PRECIP: AMOUNTS MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE, NEAR AVERAGE SNOW LEVELS
- MOUNTAIN SNOWS: BELOW AVERAGE: NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE SNOW AMOUNTS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION: BELOW AVERAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR RAINS: EARLY TO MID FEB (7-12)
- MARCH PRECIP: NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE
- MOUNTAIN SNOWS: BELOW AVERAGE:WARM FOR FEB 15-28. MARCH COLDER WITH LOWER SNOW LEVELS. LOW TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS
- PRECIPITATION: BELOW AVERAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR RAINS: EARLY TO MID FEB (8-12)
- MARCH PRECIP: MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
Figures and Text: Alan Fox, Fox Weather, LLC
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