Large Scale Summary
- The longwave pattern supports a tendency for upper high pressure near the coast of California, and subtropical S flow
from the the subtropical North Pacific towards SOCAL along 122-126W. Troughing is supported in the subtropical and midlatitude North Pacific from 160W to 145W, and for a short time off to the SSW of SOCAL. - Precipitation will be difficult to realize in the current pattern. Dates in Feb are: dates in Feb: NORCAL 1,6-7,10-11, and perhaps 26 Feb thru 1 Mar.
- NOAA/CPC/NWS still calls for below average precipitation in Feb from the Delta south, and above average at coast from Sonoma Co to Oregon coast. Temperatures appear to stay above average in California with the current trend in lack of frosts or hard freezes continuing. We appreciate the manual guidance from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center CPC). Briefing for mid Feb - Mar: Warmer than average for all of California in Feb, and in Central S California in March. Precipitation in Feb: below average in south half of California and the San Joaquin Valley-Sierras, but near average in NORCAL, and above average in the NORCAL coast areas, Sonoma Co N. The south half of California including SOCAL appears to be warmer and drier than average. The Sierras appear to have about average precipitation but consistently
warmer than average with high snow levels expected. April rainfall near average in central and S California, but above average in southern-Central
Sierras, and in the mountains of San Bernardino Co. Precipitation below average Bay Area north.. and significantly warm and dry. - Briefing for April 2026. Possibility for early season heat in April-May, i.e. possible early start to the late spring and summer hot season in NORCAL. There is a suggestion of rains into SOCAL and southern Sierras in April. Amounts of fuels in fire prone forest areas may be abnormally large: above average growth of grasses/chaparral, with early curing for NORCAL and N Sierras.
Near Term Outlook
NORCAL
- PRECIPITATION DATES: FEB 5-7, 10-11, 14, 15, perhaps
moderate rains 26-28 Feb-1 Mar. - MILD to WARM/DRY PERIODS: FEB 12-15, 20-22.
- MOUNTAIN SNOWS: FEB 6, 7, 10-11, 14, 15, 19, 26-1 Mar.
- SNOW LEVELS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE. HIGHER SNOW LEVELS FEB 7-10, 16-17, LOWER 18-19. ON 22-24, SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE.
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION DATES: FEB 5-7, 10, 14,25 Feb - 1 Mar.
- MILD/DRY: FEB WARMER THAN AVERAGE. FEB FROSTS 5-7, Santa Ana winds 12-15 Feb.
- CENTRAL SIERRA SNOWS: Feb 5-7, 10-15, 26-28, 1 Mar
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION DATES: FEB 10, 15, 27-28-Mar 1.
- COLD/FREEZES DRY WINDS: FREEZES VALLEYS Feb 9-10
- WARM/DRY PERIODS: WARM SANTA ANA WINDS 11-13
- MOUNTAIN SNOW: FEB 10, 15 BUT HIGH SNOW LEVELS.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS
- PRECIPITATION DATES FEB 10, 15, 28-Mar 1
- WARM DRY WINDS: Feb 10-12, 24-25 (SANTA ANAS)
- COLD, WINDY FEB 4-5 FROST, 9 FROST
- MOUNTAIN SNOW: NOT CALCULATED.
Medium Term Outlook: March 2026
NORCAL
- PRECIPITATION: BELOW AVERAGE
- MOUNTAIN SNOWS: BELOW AVERAGE,HIGH SNOW LEVELS, SNOWSHOWERS HIGHER PEAKS.
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION: BELOW AVERAGE
- MOUNTAIN SNOWS: BELOW AVERAGE: NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE SNOW AMOUNTS.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION BELOW AVERAGE IN MAR, SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE COASTAL MOUNTAINS IN APR, HEAVIEST IN MT BALDY /
SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS - PRECIPITATION IN APR: ABOVE AVERAGE, MOSTLY LOS ANGELES/SAN BERNARDINO COíS AND ORANGE CO.
- MOUNTAIN SNOWS: MAR SNOWFALL BELOW AVERAGE: MARCH COLDER WITH LOWER SNOW LEVELS.
- PRECIPITATION: BELOW AVERAGE NEAR AVERAGE COASTAL MOUNTAINS, BELOW AVERAGE AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINS. MARCH COLDER WITH LOWER SNOW LEVELS.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS
- PRECIPITATION: BELOW AVERAGE. BEST CHANCE SHOWERS: EARLY TO MID MAR.
- MARCH PRECIP: MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
Figures and Text: Alan Fox, Fox Weather, LLC
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