Large Scale Summary
- The longwave pattern supports a tendency for troughing near the California coast between the Bay Area and north to the Oregon/Washington coast (ORWA). SW flow is west of this coast from the subtropical N Pacific along 122-126W. Troughing is supported in the subtropical North Pacific from 180 to 160W, and teleconnects to a trough near the Central to N California coast and on north to the ORWA coast. Upper high pressure continues in the 180hr period (7.5 days out) approximately 150-160W. Both the cyclonically shaped IVTinit patterns and the cells of well-defined SSTA maxima (meso-beta scale red-orange cells) contribute moisture to support rains in central to N California and ORWA. Sometimes they agree with the larger IVTinit circulations, sometimes they conflict with each other. Bottom line: FOXW (WRF12-based) and CW3E (GFS-based) patterns continue in general agreement, although the positions of troughs differ in this case by a few degrees longitude.
- Precipitation dates with the current pattern: Dates in Feb are: NORCAL 15-18, and 22-24 Feb, CenCal 15-18, 22-24 Feb, and SOCAL 15-18 Feb and a smaller rain 23-24th.
- NOAA/CPC/NWS still calls for below average precipitation in Feb and Mar for all of California, and near or above average for the ORWA coast from Brookings OR north to Puget Sound, WA.
- Briefing for mid Feb - Mar: Warmer than average for California in Feb, and in Central S California in March. Precipitation in Feb: below average in south half of California and the San Joaquin Valley-Sierras, but near average in NORCAL, and in the NORCAL coast areas. The south half of California including SOCAL appears to be warmer and drier than average. The Sierras appear to have about average precipitation but still a little warmer than average with high snow levels expected. April rainfall near average in central and S California, but above average in southern-Central Sierras, and in the mountains of Southern California. We do not believe the wet PLUS warm scenario indicated by NOAA/NCEP/CPC combining above average precipitation with well above average temperatures for California does not appear to be a realistic pattern for early to mid spring in this West Coast climate zone. If the early to mid spring is wet, then near or below average temperatures would be more reasonable.
- For May 2026 we see from the NOAA guidance a tendency for mild temperatures and about average precipitation.
Near Term Outlook
NORCAL
- PRECIPITATION DATES: FEB 16,17,18,19. MAR 2-3
- MILD to WARM/DRY PERIODS: FEB 26-28, MAR 1
- MOUNTAIN SNOWS AND COLD: FEB 15,16,17,18,19,23-24.
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION DATES: FEB 15,16,17,18,19
- MILD/DRY: FEB WARMER THAN AVERAGE. FEB FROSTS, Santa Ana winds 20-26
- CENTRAL SIERRA SNOWS: Feb 15,16,17,18,19, 22-24, 1 Mar
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION DATES: FEB 15,16,17,19.
- COLD/FREEZES DRY WINDS: FREEZES VALLEYS Feb OVERNGT 17-18,19,20
- WARM/DRY PERIODS: WARM SANTA ANA WINDS 20-23 DESPITE COLD NIGHTS
- MOUNTAIN SNOW: FEB 16-19, 23-24.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS
- PRECIPITATION DATES. FEB 15,16,17,18, 19, 23-24
- WARM DRY WINDS: Feb 20-22 (SANTA ANAS)
- COLD, WINDY FEB FROST,15-22 FROST FREEZE IN VALLEYS
- MOUNTAIN SNOW: NOT CALCULATED.
Medium Term Outlook: March 2026
NORCAL
- PRECIPITATION: PRECIP BELOW AVERAGE
- MOUNTAIN SNOWS: BELOW AVERAGE, HIGH SNOW LEVELS, SNOWSHWRS HIGHER PEAKS.
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION: NEAR AVERAGE
- MOUNTAIN SNOWS: NEAR AVERAGE: NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW AMOUNTS.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION: BELOW AVERAGE IN MAR, SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE COASTAL MOUNTAINS.
- MOUNTAIN SNOWS: MAR SNOWFALL NEAR AVERAGE: MARCH COLDER WITH LOWER SNOW LEVELS.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS
- PRECIPITATION: BELOW AVERAGE. BEST CHANCE SHOWERS: EARLY TO MID MAR.
- MARCH PRECIP: MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
Figures and Text: Alan Fox, Fox Weather, LLC
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