Large Scale Summary
- The longwave pattern supports troughing at eastern N Pacific near the California coast. It also supports development of Atmospheric River events into Pacific Northwest (ORWA). The storms are energized by tracks of above average sea surface temperatures to the west and southwest of California. Storms reaching SOCAL Dec 31-Jan 2 are prolific rain producers, with potential for more flooding in SOCAL, as well as some flooding in NW California. Although
rains are less intense as at Christmas, there is still a risk of mud slides in Ventura, Los Angeles and San Bernardino Coís areas. The slides appear to be most severe in the Los Angeles County south slopes of the San Gabriel Mountains as well as east portions of Ventura Co. Troughing and focus of rains are near 25-40N 150W-130W as well as the coast of northwest and southern California. - Rain dates: Most of Calif Jan 1-3,4-7,11. Mostly dry for Jan 12-31, except for occasional showers in central and southcentral California 17 and 23-25.
- Briefing for second medium range outlook period: Above average temperature for Feb,with precipitation near average in central and N Sierras, and below average North Coast and most or all of SOCAL (Feb).
Near Term Outlook
NORCAL
- PRECIPITATION DATES: Dec 31-Jan 1-5,8,17-18, 23
- MILD/DRY PERIODS: Jan 9-10, 12-30
- MOUNTAIN SNOWS: Dec 31-Jan 1-7
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION DATES: Dec 31-Jan 1-7, 8, 18, 23
- MILD/DRY: Jan 9-10, frosts Jan 8,11. Dry 12-30
Central Sierra
- SNOWS: Dec 31-Jan 1-7
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION DATES: Dec 31-Jan 4, 8, 18, 23
- COLD/FREEZES DRY WINDS: Jan 9-10, freezes in frost prone valleys
- WARM/DRY PERIODS: Jan 11-17 but cold nights.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW: Dec 31 ñJan3, 8, 18, 23 but mostly high snow levels.
- SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS
- PRECIPITATION DATES Dec 31-Jan 4, 8, 18, 23
- COLD, FREEZES, WINDS Jan 4, Jan 8-10, 19-20, 23-24
- MOUNTAIN SNOW: Dec 31-Jan 4, 8, 18, 23.
Medium Term Outlook: Feb 1-28 2026
NORCAL
- PRECIPITATION: A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR FEB 2026. FEB PRECIP 8-12
- MOUNTAIN SNOWS: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF STORMS, HIGH SNOW LEVELS (MILD)
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION: A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR FEB 2026. FEB PRECIP MAINLY 8-12TH.
- MOUNTAIN SNOWS: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF STORMS, HIGH SNOW LEVELS (MILD) SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
- PRECIPITATION: BELOW AVERAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR RAINS: EARLY TO MID FEB(8-12).
- MOUNTAIN SNOWS: AMOUNTS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO WARMTH AND LACK OF STORMS.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS
- PRECIPITATION: BELOW AVERAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR RAINS: EARLY TO MID FEB (8-12)
Figures and Text: Alan Fox, Fox Weather, LLC
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