BASIC PATTERN:
Large Scale Pattern –
- The annual splitting of the southward-migrating storm track over the Tibetan Plateau in Asia has begun, and will be adding more energy to the southern storm track. This will assist the development of rain in California. This is already showing in the FoxCFSDailyAI system that predicts daily rainfall out through the first 30 day period.
- We head into a more seasonable regime for November, with above normal precipitation indicated, and near normal temperatures. Showers in Arizona will shift back to a little above normal in Nov.
- For mid to late Nov onward through early Dec…it looks wet in most of California, including central, Northern and Southern portions of the state. Heavier rains continue in mid to late Nov, interrupted by a couple of breaks, per the CFSv2-based daily products. For SOCAL...Rains appear to spread south again in mid and late Nov, then continue off-on into the first part of Dec. However the CFSv2 outlook maps suggest that we return to dry conditions again about mid Dec before Dec holidays.
- For Jan 2023, we return to warmer than normal in California, and below normal precipitation.
- In Feb 2023, there is a chance for us to return to near normal precipitation and below normal temperatures (due to more frequent frosts/freezes).
FORECASTS FOR CALIFORNIA
Forecast for Northern and Central California:
Norcal RAINS: Nov 6-7, 8-11, 18-23, 24 (SOCAL), and Dec 3-6 (Sierras and coasts).
Norcal WARM SPELLS: Nov 13-16 and 27-Dec 1.
Norcal COOL SPELLS: Nov 6-11, 18-24 and Dec 3-7.
Norcal FROSTS: Nov 5, 8, 11-13, 23, 25-26 and Dec 7-9.
Central Calif WARM SPELLS: Nov 13-16 and 27-Dec 1.
Central Calif COOL SPELLS: Nov 6-12, 19-25 and Dec 3-8.
Central CALIF FROSTS: Nov 5, 8, 17-18 and Dec 3-5.
Forecast for Southern California:
Socal RAINS: Nov 7, 11, 20-22, 24 and Dec 4-6.
Socal WARM SPELLS: Nov 12-17 and 28-Dec 2.
Socal COOL OR COLD SPELLS: Nov 7-8, 10-11, 20-24 and Dec 3-7.
Socal FROST: Nov 5, 8, 12, 23, 25 and Dec 7-8.
Forecast for Central Sierra Nevada:
Central Sierra Nevada Precipitation: Nov 6-10, 19-24 and Dec 3-6.
----------
The listings of dates normally included for hot and cold spells, and precipitation are very approximate. They are based on our CFSDaily and CFSDailyAI products; and present expected trends in precipitation and temperature (CFSDailyAI) to 4km. Our system gives some consideration to terrain and coastal influence. We consider the CFSv2 as one of the better ways to represent basic weather down in the sub-monthly time scale beyond the 15 –day GFS or monthly maps from CFSv2 or NMME.
----------
Southern California Deserts Outlook for November 5 - December 5, 2022
Highlights: In November, we see a resumption of a more normal development of cold fronts with upper lows and showers, especially Nov 7, 11, 21-22, 24, and Dec 4-6.
Looking Ahead – Long Range Outlook
December 5 - January 31, 2023... NORCAL and Central California coastal valleys, and Central Valley: Above normal temperatures will alternate with cold frontal passages and cold events. There is a chance for a well defined wet period during the first 10 days of December, and again about the end of December.
For SOCAL mountains westward to coast: January 2023 currently appears abnormally warm and dry. This trend is interesting, but we currently lack confidence in it. Although cutoff lows may develop on occasion to bring rains to
Southern California, the supply of water will be heavily dependent on strategic planning of water storage in Northern California and Sierras. Despite some good early season rains and snowfall that may occur, the challenge to make up for lack of Sierra snowpack water storage should continue difficult to achieve.
(Terms and Definitions Used In This Weather Outlook)
Alan Fox & Zane Stephens...Fox Weather, LLC
Copyright © 2022, Fox Weather, LLC, Used by permission.