BASIC PATTERN:
Large Scale Pattern –
- The westerlies have migrated farther south now, but there will continue significant interruptions to the wetter pattern, even during late Nov and Dec. Our FoxCFSDailyAI is one of the tools we use in anticipating regime shifts, and provides precipitation inputs at a daily time step out through the 30 day period.
- We have been in a favorable pattern of above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures thus far in Nov, and expect recurrence of this cold and wet pattern at end of Nov as well as in early N and Central California in Dec.
- It is dry until about 21st, then rain with higher snow levels Nov 22. Rains appear to resume about 26-30th with some lowering of snow levels in the Sierras about 12-14 Nov then a bit intermittently wet and cold 16th onward. For most of the remainder of Nov, FoxCFSDailyAI continues to show a fairly consistent wet trend in the Sierras from Sierra County south to Mariposa County.
- For Jan 2023, we return to near or a little above normal precipitation in NE California and Sierras, drier than normal coast and SOCAL, and near normal temperatures in central coast and S California.
- In Feb 2023, (from NMME model)there is a chance for us to return to normal precipitation (Sierras) but dry windy and cold with frosts near the coast.
- March 2023 looks currently (from NMME Model) colder than normal, and near to below normal precipitation (rain and snow for the Sierras but dry and windy at the coast).
FORECASTS FOR CALIFORNIA
Forecast for Northern and Central California:
Norcal RAINS: Nov 25, 28-Dec 1, 2-3, 5-6, 9, 11, 14-17 and 18.
Norcal WARM SPELLS: Nov 22-24, Dec 20-22.
Norcal COOL SPELLS: Nov 28-Dec 11 and 14-18.
Norcal FROSTS: Nov 20,24, 26-27, Dec 4, 7-8, 10, 12-13 and 19-20.
Central Calif RAIN: Nov 27-28, 30-Dec 1, 2, 7, 12 and 14.
Central Calif WARM SPELLS: Nov 22-25, Dec 4-6 and 18-20.
Central Calif COOL SPELLS: Nov 27-Dec 3, 7-8, 12-14 and 16-17
Central Calif FROSTS: Nov 29, 3-5, 8-10, 13 and 15-16.
Forecast for Southern California:
SOCAL RAINS: Nov 27-28, Dec 1, 2-3 and 12.
SOCAL WARM SPELLS: Nov 23-26, Dec 5-9 and 15-19.
SOCAL COOL OR COLD SPELLS: Nov 27-29, Dec 1-3 and 12-14.
SOCAL FROST: Nov 23-24, 29-30, Dec 4-5 and 13-14.
Forecast for Central Sierra Nevada:
Central Sierra Nevada Precipitation: Dates of rain: Nov 27-28, 30-Dec 1, 2-3, 6-7, 10, 11-12, 14 and 18-19.
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The listings of dates normally included for hot and cold spells, and precipitation are very approximate. They are based on our CFSDaily and CFSDailyAI products; and present expected trends in precipitation and temperature (CFSDailyAI) to 4km. Our system gives some consideration to terrain and coastal influence. We consider the CFSv2 as one of the better ways to represent basic weather down in the sub-monthly time scale beyond the 15 –day GFS or monthly maps from CFSv2 or NMME.
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Southern California Deserts Outlook for November 20 - December 20, 2022
Highlights: Nov 19-30 and Dec 1-10 we see a resumption of a more normal development of occasional cold fronts frosts, and upper lows with showers.
Looking Ahead – Long Range Outlook
December 20 - January 31, 2023... NORCAL and Central California coastal valleys, and Central Valley: Above normal temperatures will alternate with cold frontal passages
and cold events. There is a chance for intermittent wet periods during the first 15 days of Dec, and again about the end of Dec. Near or a little wetter than normal in Jan 2023 from the CFSv2, but a little drier than normal per the NMME, especially west portions of N and Central California.
For SOCAL mountains westward to coast: January 2023 currently appears seasonably cool and dry. This trend is interesting, but we currently lack confidence in it. Jan 2023 appears to be wetter than normal in N California as mentioned. Although cutoff lows may develop on occasion to bring rains to Southern California, the supply of water will be heavily dependent on strategic planning of water storage in Northern California and Sierras with the current mid-November snowpack. We greatly appreciate the snowpack, and it is a valuable resource to use wisely. We expect to return to abnormally dry conditions in SOCAL and at the central Coast in Jan and Feb, with recurrent frosts/freezes. The NMME Model at this time is showing a dry March for California. If all three months happen to be dry, then that means subnormal water equivalent precipitation for more than half if this winter season....continuing the serious water deficit that has been spanning multiple wet seasons. Therefore, the challenge is to intelligently use whatever we have. The season for Atmospheric Rivers to beneficially add to lakes and rivers is Nov-Feb. We have seen the good rains and snowpack in Nov so far. After a December that struggles to maintain normal monthly precipitation water equivalent, we face the difficult situation of a dry Jan, and dry and unusually cold (frost-freeze events) in Feb for N and Central California. These all impact the storage challenge for all of California, including SOCAL from this winter’s rain season.
(Terms and Definitions Used In This Weather Outlook)
Alan Fox & Zane Stephens...Fox Weather, LLC
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