CAC Releases Mid-Season Update For 2021 Crop
As part of the California Avocado Commission’s crop estimating efforts, an annual mid-season crop estimating survey is conducted among growers and handlers during the month of April. Both sets of surveys collect volume information, as well as variety distribution. Additionally, the handler survey requests each organization to provide harvest projections for the remaining months of the season. The results of these surveys are used to inform the industry of the total crop that is expected to come to market and as a guide that helps shape the timing of CAC’s marketing efforts.
Results of both the 2021 grower and handler mid-season surveys were used to develop CAC’s mid-season crop update of 265 million pounds, 27 million pounds less than the February 2021 handler estimate of 292 million pounds. The decrease in volume mostly comes from Hass (26 million pounds), however a slight reduction to the Lamb-Hass volume also has been made (1 million pounds). As a reminder, very early industry crop estimates in September 2020 projected a crop size of 333 million pounds, and in October the CAC Board approved the 2020-21 budget using 325 million pounds. Discussions with industry stakeholders indicate that the reduced volume this season is due in large part to multiple wind events and a lack of rain, which has resulted in smaller sized fruit.
Utilizing information provided by handlers, CAC has created monthly and weekly harvest projections based on the 265-million-pound crop volume. Please note that projected volume for the beginning of the season, which has already been harvested, do not show weekly actuals, but instead how the four-year average and handler forecasting models projecting a 265-million-pound crop would have come to market. As we move through the season, Commission staff will continue to track crop harvest and remaining volume closely, ensuring that CAC’s marketing efforts are aligned with when California fruit is in-season.